West Virginia’s population barely grew in 2012, adding slightly more than 500 people, according to the new population estimates released today (Dec. 20) by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The estimates show that the state’s population in 2012 was 1,855,413 compared to 1,854,908 in 2011.
This was a weak 0.03 percent growth, which was slightly below the already weak 0.05 percent growth in 2011. These last two growth rates were well below the average annual growth rate of 0.24 percent between 2000 and 2010.
There are two main factors that drove the state’s population growth to a near stall: a significant increase in the gap between deaths and births and a modest population gain from domestic net-migration.
“The modest gain from the net migration in the last two years was driven partly by the slowing of the state economy as we suffer from the lingering effect of the great recession, as well as by significant job losses in the energy sectors,” said Christiadi, a demographer with the West Virginia University Bureau of Business and Economic Research in the College of Business and Economics. (Christiadi uses only one name.)
In 2012, deaths in West Virginia were estimated to outnumber births by 1,600, a nearly 15 percent increase from the 1,200 gap in 2011. For comparison purposes, the average gap in the last decade was 150 per year. Deaths are expected to continue to outnumber births in the next few years as rapid population aging continues.
The population gain from domestic net-migration also remained modest at approximately 2,000 in 2012, which was about the same as in 2011. These gains were well below the average annual gain of 4,000 in the last decade.
“This is the period in which the number of West Virginians turning 65 far outnumbers that of younger people joining the state population. This trend will likely continue through the end of the 2020s, when all the baby boomers turn 65 years old or older,” said Christiadi.
This leaves net migration as the primary source for the state’s population growth.
“West Virginia receives a sizeable number of people who move here for a variety of reasons, including out-of-state students attending West Virginia colleges, out-of-state workers looking for cheaper houses, out-of-state residents getting new jobs in the state and West Virginia born residents returning back to the state,” Christiadi said.
“We may not be able to increase the net-migration gain to the last decade’s level of around 4,000 per year. However, as the state economy gradually recovers, the net-migration gain should gradually increase as well,” said Christiadi.
